Asia holds demand and capacity cards
29 / 11 / 2023
B777-200LR. Photo: DHL
DHL Global Forwarding (DHL GF) paints a broadly stable picture for air cargo demand in its November ‘Air Freight State of the Industry‘ report.
“Air cargo demand remain(s) steady, with a slight increase month on month (MoM), and remains flat year on year (YoY),” surmised the report.
While overall demand was stable, the situation varied from region to region, with volumes out of Europe and North America pulling down global figures.
“Most regions show a substantial rise in tonnage compared to last year: +9% ex-Africa, +8% ex-Asia Pacific and ex-Middle East
& South Asia, and +6% ex-Central & South America.”
The report added there were “significant decreases in tonnages observed ex-North America (-12%) and ex-Europe (-9%).
Strong demand out of Asia Pacific is expected to continue in December resulting in supply chain congestion in China and Hong Kong.
“Continued surge in demand ex-Asia Pacific expected to persist until mid-December, leading to backlogs in CN and in HK,” found DHL GF.
Capacity remains sufficient in most regions with no significant backlogs, except from Israel, where global airlines have pulled capacity due to the current conflict, and Hong Kong and China, where capacity recovery is behind other parts of the world due to previous pandemic restrictions.
“Air cargo capacity [is] 11% higher than November 2022, boosted by a strong growth of +19% in belly capacity versus November 2022,” said DHL GF.
However, as with heightened demand out of Asia, looking ahead, the e-commerce sector is set to reduce available capacity out of Asia.
Source: Seabury via DHL
On rates, DHL GF said: “Global average rates trends to increase with MoM around +3%; though we observe -27% decline compared to last year.”
DHL GF also expects jet fuel prices to rise in early 2024, in line with “ongoing supply disruption risks in the months ahead”.
