Boeing ups aircraft demand expectation
16 / 06 / 2015
Boeing has upped its expectation for demand of new aircraft from last year’s forecast, predicting that 38,050 new airplanes will be needed over the next 20 years.
The company predicted that by the end of the 20 year forecast period, the commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034.
Last year, its forecast was 3.5% lower than its newly issued estimate.
It said 58% of the 38,050 airplanes delivered over that time will be to accommodate growth.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing, Randy Tinseth, said: “The commercial airplane market continues to be strong and resilient.
“As we look forward, we expect the market to continue to grow and the demand for new aircraft to be robust.”
During the period cargo traffic is expected to grow at about 4.7% per year.
“The air cargo market continues to strengthen, and will drive demand of some 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast,” Boeing said.
"We’ve seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue," Tinseth added. "That’s great news for our line of production freighters, including the 747-8, 767 and 777."
The single-aisle market continues to be the fastest-growing, largest overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades.
Boeing said these aircraft are the “foundation of the world’s airline fleet”, operating more than 70% of the world’s commercial aviation routes.
Emerging markets and low-cost airlines were fuelling the need for this type of aircraft.
Boeing forecasts that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner.
This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X.
While airline growth still accounts for the majority of new demand, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. About 2 to 3% the installed fleet will require replacement each year.