India and Europe the bright spots in difficult start to the year

Worldwide air cargo demand started the year slowly with only a slight increase in volumes recorded, but there was better news from Europe and India.
In its monthly market analysis, WorldACD said there was “little to cheer” in January as global air cargo volumes increased by just 0.3% compared with a year earlier.
On the yield front, there was a year-on-year decline of 16% in January.
“Europe was the exception, just as it was in the second half of last year, with volume growth of more than 5% outbound and 1.5% inbound,” the analyst said.
“Although Asia Pacific as a region hardly grew, its business to and from Europe thrived (+8.8% resp. +10.6%).”
While there was good news for European businesses on the demand front, India also offered hope.
WorldACD said the country’s growth percentages for 2015 were more than double the worldwide average at 4.1% outbound and 4.7% inbound. For January 2016, year-on-year volume growth reached 4.4% outbound and 7% inbound.
“The UK is still [India’s] most important outbound market, but its dominant position is dwindling,” said  WorldACD.
“The top inbound markets of Hong Kong, Germany and China East strengthened their position with double-digit growth figures: the latter two even managed over 20% year-on-year growth in January.
“Importantly, there is a good overall balance between India outbound and inbound.”
The analyst said India’s GSAs saw their outbound business grow in line with the market in 2015, while the top-five GSA’s increased their market share (among GSA’s) from 60% to 70%, the top-10 from 80% to 90%, making life "more difficult for the smaller GSA’s operating in India".
“The same could not be said for India’s top forwarders,” WorldACD said.
“Their market share was already smaller in India than worldwide, and it decreased further in 2015.
“Whereas the top-five forwarders only lost 0.1%, their share going from 14.6% to 14.5%, the five next biggest forwarders lost a larger part of the market, as their share went down from 10.5% to 9.9%.”
Last week, an India official spoke of its projections that air cargo demand in India would increase from 2.6m tonnes last year to 8.7m tonnes in 2030.

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