Demand for aircraft will hit new heights, says Boeing
02 / 03 / 2015
THE Middle East and Asia Pacific carriers will take delivery of almost 60 per cent of the predicted 8,600 new widebodied passenger aircraft ordered over the next 20 years, forecasts Boeing, writes Thelma Etim, deputy editor.
Among them will be B787-10s, B777s and B777Xs, and B747-8s – adding substantially to the world’s growing belly cargo inventory.
Demand for large widebodies will be monopolised by carriers from Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East regions, says the planemaker in an updated forecast.
The main demand will come from passenger jetliners operating high-traffic trunk routes – supplementing lift from dedicated commercial freighters.
Overall, the world’s jet fleet will double in size to 42,000 units over the next 20 years, with demand for new aircraft reaching a value of US$5.2 trillion.
Despite the predicted passenger boom, Boeing expects that freighters will continue to carry more than half of all global airfreight traffic – and capacity balance will be restored within a few years, as world trade recovers.
The replacement of aging freighter aircraft, plus the industry’s growth requirements, will create a demand for nearly 2,200 freighter deliveries in the period. Of these, 1,330 will be conversions. The remaining 840, valued at $240 billion, will be new.
Overall, the global freighter fleet will increase by more than half, from 1,690 last year to 2,730 aircraft in 2033.
“Two hundred and fifty medium, widebody purpose-built freighters will be delivered during the forecast period. This freighter market is driven by express carriers that mitigate the lower economic efficiency of medium widebodies with higher yields,” says a Boeing statement.
Demand for medium-sized, widebody freighters will be affected by lower-hold passenger aircraft capacity – and also from competition from less expensive surface transport modes.
“Nearly 400 widebody conversions will be needed and almost 600 new, large freighters will be required where high cargo density, larger payloads and extended range are crucial,” Boeing concludes.
