Cooler air cargo market in September just a blip

The air cargo market showed signs of cooling slightly in September but expectations are that demand will quickly pick up again in October.

Freight forwarder Dimerco said that e-commerce and electronics volumes had “underperformed expectations in September”.

The company also pointed out that while the Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Composite Output Index remained in positive territory, this was down to the services sector and manufacturing is on a downward trend.

Dimerco said goods trade slowed in both developed and emerging markets in August and China’s goods exports fell for the first time in 2024, signaling a broader decline in manufacturing as the year progresses.

Airfreight rate index provider TAC said that the market was relatively quiet for the period leading into Golden Week in China, starting October 1, when rates usually rise a little.

“Though [it is] too early to tell if demand will be weaker than previously expected when we enter traditional peak season,” TAC said in its weekly market wrap-up.

Its airfreight figures show pricing was more or less flat last week.

Another contact told Air Cargo News that increased US scrutiny on e-commerce goods entering the country and the imposition of stricter security requirements for European and CIS cargo may have impacted the market in recent weeks.

Data provider WorldACD also noted a cooling of the air cargo market in September as figures were affected by the one-day mid-Autumn festival in many east Asian countries.

The data providers’ figures show that overall air cargo volumes fell 3% week on week for the week ending September 22 [week 38]. Asia Pacific origins were down 6%.

“This Asia Pacific drop was mainly due to the seasonal effects of mid-autumn or harvest festival holidays in various parts of East Asia – taking place this year from 16 to 18 September, within week 38,” WorldACD said.

Source: WorldACD

Last year, the festival took place in week 39, the data provider explained. The company added that there was also a national holiday in Chile which affected volumes out of South America.

However, the general consensus appears to be that the market will quickly pick up again.

Dimerco pointed out that the US Federal Reserve cut rates by more than expected earlier this week, which should boost spending, and there is also the potential for strikes at US east coast container ports that could result in modal shift to air.

“A surge is anticipated from late September into October, with high demand likely starting mid-October to prepare for traditional online shopping festivals,” said Dimerco Express Group vice president of sales and marketing Kathy Liu.

“The potential ILA strike on October 1 is expected to further boost airfreight demand, particularly for shipments to the east coast, as ocean freight switches to air.

“Globally, Intra-Asia capacity will tighten, with long-haul routes prioritised during the peak season.”

WorldACD said that the continuing strength of air cargo rates also pointed to expectations of strong demand levels.

“This interpretation that the tonnage decline in week 38 is a seasonal blip rather than an overall weakening of the market is further supported by the continuing strong, and in some cases increasing, rates trends, mainly driven by Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin regions, thanks to the ongoing e-commerce boom and continued (and increasing) tensions in the Middle East region, respectively.”

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