Trade expected to accelerate in Q3 despite tariff concerns
28 / 06 / 2018
Global trade growth is expected to accelerate during the third quarter of the year, despite increasing tension over tariffs.
The latest DHL Global Trade Barometer index for the coming three months increased to 67 points in June, compared with 66 points in March.
Any index value over 50 points indicates that respondents to the DHL survey are expecting trade to grow.
The rise in the overall index was primarily driven by a slight increase for ocean freight, which has now reached an index value of 64 points (March: 63). The index for global air trade remained unchanged at 70 points.
"Geography-wise, the global improvement was mainly driven by more optimistic outlooks for China and South Korea," DHL said.
"The trade forecast for the US has also improved slightly. The positive impact by these three countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and the UK.
"Despite a strong decline by 5 points in the outlook for India, the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with 79 points."
The UK has the least favorable outlook with now 57 index points, down 4 points compared to March.
This is attributed to a drop in UK air imports and exports of temperature controlled goods like fresh food, as well as lower UK ocean imports of raw materials. However, the UK automotive industry is expected to see positive growth over the next three months.
Germany reported an increase in air trade by 3 points offset by a 1 point decline ocean trade. This amounts to an unchanged overall forecast for Germany – with an index value of 64.
With respect to individual industries, the outlook for machinery parts and components improved most, followed byconsumer goods and high tech.
All industries included in the DHL Global Trade Barometer continue to have a positive trade outlook, except Basic Raw Materials, for which the index predicts a significant decline in global trade.
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