2010 loss forecast cut in half

PREDICTED losses for the aviation industry in 2010 have dropped to US$2.8 billion compared to the $5.6 billion loss forecast in December last year. Loss estimates for 2009 have also dropped, to $9.4 billion from the previously forecast $11 billion.

IATA claims that the improvement is largely driven by a much stronger recovery in demand seen by year-end gains that continued into the first months of 2010. Relatively flat capacity translated into some yield improvement and stronger revenues. Improvements are being driven by economic recovery in the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

IATA is also now predicting that cargo demand, which fell by 11 per cent in 2009, is expected to grow by 12 per cent in 2010, five per cent more than the previously forecast seven per cent. That would wipe out the effects of the crisis and still give the industry a one per cent growth.

Seeing as most commentators are expecting a pre-crisis recovery not before 2013, suggesting it as early as this year is perhaps just a little optimistic.

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