IATA financial outlook for 2010

THE International Air Transport Association revised its financial outlook for 2010 to an expected US$5.6 billion global net loss, larger than the previously forecast loss of $3.8 billion. For 2009, IATA maintained its forecast of a $11 billion net loss.
“The worst is likely behind us. For 2010, some key statistics are moving in the right direction,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and chief executive officer.
The forecast highlights include:
Revenues: Industry revenues are expected to rise by $22 billion (4.9 per cent) to $478 billion in 2010, compared to 2009. However, revenues remain $57 billion (-11 per cent) below the peak of $535 billion in 2008 and $30 billion below 2007 when passenger traffic was at similar levels to what is expected in 2010.
Passenger Demand: Following a decline of 4.1 per cent in 2009, passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2010 (stronger than the previously forecast 3.2 per cent in September). A total of 2.28 billion people are expected to fly in 2010, bringing total passenger numbers back in line with the peak recorded in 2007.
Cargo Demand: Cargo demand is expected to grow by seven per cent to 37.7 million tonnes in 2010 (stronger than the previously forecast five per cent in September), following a 13 per cent decline in 2009, Total freight volumes will remain 10 per cent below the 41.8 million tonne peak recorded in 2007. Cargo demand is rising faster than world trade as depleted inventories are rebuilt. Once the inventory cycle completes, growth is expected to fall back in line with world trade.
A number of combination airlines have grounded their freighters, easing the stress on supply and demand.

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