Manufacturer's 2025 cargo market forecast anticipates 3.3% annual air cargo growth through 2045, with Asia-Pacific and North America accounting for nearly two-thirds of the 2,605 freighter requirement as trade lanes diversify and emerging economies drive demand.
Airbus has published a optimistic forecast for freighter growth over the next 20 years, despite the newbuild delivery delays and supply chain challenges for aircraft conversions that have emerged recently.
Airbus’ 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF) shows the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft rising to 3,420 in the next 20 years, equivalent to a 45% increase.
This will be made up of 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional ones. Of these additional 2,605 freighters, 1,530 will be replacements and 1,075 will be newbuild.
The additional 2,605 will be split between 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies.
Overall of the 2,605 additional freighters, 1,670 will be conversions from passenger aircraft and 935 will be new-build freighters.
In comparison, Cirium is even more optimistic. According to the 2025-2044 Cirium Fleet Forecast, almost 3,300 freighter aircraft will be added to the air cargo market over the next 20 years.
Last year, Airbus had trimmed its 20-year outlook, predicting demand for 2,470 freighters by 2043. 2023's forecast predicted 2,510 freighters by 2042.
World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and trade remain the main drivers of air cargo, said Airbus. With long term trade forecasted at 2.7% CAGR, Airbus forecasts that air cargo demand growth will develop at a rate of 3.3% annually over the next 20 years, effectively almost doubling cargo volumes over the next two decades.
Last year, Airbus' outlook for cargo demand growth between 2024-2044 was 3.1% per year.
Airbus forecasts significant air cargo growth as it has proven to be essential - not just to support economies, but also to connect remote communities, transport essential and health-critical goods, and enable local business development in emerging countries.
After rapid cargo fleet growth during the pandemic, fuelled by an increase of passenger aircraft conversions into freighters and minimum retirement of previous generation freighters, Airbus forecasts that going forward, a large proportion of these older freighters will leave the fleet and be replaced by newer, more fuel efficient freighters such as the A350F or A320/A321 and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
Airbus also forecasts trade lanes, and therefore air cargo flows diversification, as more countries in the Asia-Pacific region become industrial centres. Likewise, GDP and demographic forecasts indicate that new countries such as Brazil, Indonesia or Vietnam will emerge as major consumer economies in the coming decades. This will initiate a gradual shift in air cargo geography and the global air freight map.
Of the total need for 2,605 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific and North America will account for nearly two-thirds of demand, requiring 850 and 920 aircraft, respectively.
