The air cargo and freight forwarding industry finds itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating a landscape shaped by evolving global economics, shifting trade policies, and a relentless drive for operational efficiency.
While recent media reports suggest that airfreight is operating “in low gear” with “slowing growth”, it’s crucial to view these trends not as insurmountable obstacles, but as catalysts for adaptation and innovation within our resilient sector.
Indeed, the global economic uncertainties and persistent trade tensions have undeniably contributed to a slight softening in volumes for some forwarders. The once-predictable peak seasons have become more diffuse, and businesses are carefully recalibrating their supply chains in response to an unpredictable tariff environment.
However, what is equally evident, and perhaps more indicative of our industry’s inherent dynamism, is a significant shift in where this volume is originating. This rebalancing act, while challenging, is opening new corridors of opportunity and demanding greater agility from all stakeholders.
A key factor influencing this evolving landscape is the recently passed US legislation, signed into law by President Trump as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. Two provisions within this landmark legislation hold particular significance for air cargo and freight forwarding.
Firstly, the eradication of the de minimis, low-value entry programme for e-commerce shipments marks a profound shift. Historically, the de minimis rule allowed imports valued at $800 or less to enter the US duty-free with minimal customs oversight.
While initially intended to streamline low-risk imports, its exponential use by e-commerce giants, particularly for goods from certain regions, raised concerns about unfair competition for domestic manufacturers and the influx of potentially unregulated goods.
The US has said it will suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value imports, under $800, for all countries of origin from the end of August.
Building on earlier executive actions that targeted shipments from China and Hong Kong, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will eliminate the de mimimis exemption for all e-commerce shipments from 1 July, 2027.
This will undoubtedly reshape e-commerce supply chains, potentially encouraging a move towards more traditional bulk shipping models and greater domestic fulfilment, creating new demands and opportunities for forwarders equipped to handle these larger, more formalised movements.
Secondly, the allocation of $12.5bn to fund air traffic control (ATC) system improvements within the US is a welcome and critical investment. Our nation’s air traffic control infrastructure, while robust in its safety record, has long been in need of modernisation.
Recent incidents have underscored the urgency of upgrading outdated technology and facilities. This substantial funding, hailed by industry leaders as a vital “down payment”, will enable crucial advancements in telecommunications, radar systems, and the construction of new air route traffic control centers.
A more efficient and technologically advanced ATC system will not only enhance safety but also improve the predictability and fluidity of air cargo operations, reducing delays and optimising capacity utilisation. This is an investment in the future competitiveness of American aviation and, by extension, the air cargo industry.
While we acknowledge the headwinds – the tariff uncertainties and the general slowdown in growth – the air cargo and freight forwarding industry has always thrived on its ability to adapt.
These legislative changes, though presenting immediate adjustments, are ultimately laying the groundwork for a more equitable and efficient operating environment. The eradication of de minimis will foster changing competition, and the investment in ATC infrastructure will enhance the very arteries of our operations.
As executive director of the Airforwarders Association, I remain optimistic. Our industry’s strength lies in its ingenuity, its global reach, and its unwavering commitment to connecting businesses and consumers worldwide.
By embracing these changes, leveraging new technologies, and continuing to advocate for policies that support seamless global trade, we are well-positioned not just to weather the current climate, but to emerge stronger and more vital than ever before.
The future of air cargo is not without its challenges, but it is undeniably bright with potential.
