Demand for 777-300ER freighter conversions is surging due to the upcoming end of the 777 production programme but feedstock is proving hard to find, according to market intelligence firm IBA.
IBA said that demand for the 777-300ER conversion is accelerating due to the need for large widebody capacity following the end of the Boeing 777 production model in 2027.
Currently, the 777 production freighter is the only widebody all-cargo aircraft being built, while there are three 777 conversion programmes in development.
"With the ICAO emissions mandate ending 777F production in 2027 and Boeing’s freighter output capped, demand for alternative widebody freighters is intensifying,” IBA said.
"Recent Emirates 777F orders suggest airlines are adapting amid 777X delays and limited freighter options, while for some carriers, new freighters remain cost-prohibitive, especially as options like the ageing 747-400F/BCF/BDSF become scarce."
Meanwhile, companies interested in the conversion programmes face the difficulty of obtaining feedstock aircraft, which are in short supply.
"A critical shortage of feedstock due to high passenger market retention is limiting the pace at which these aircraft can enter the freighter fleet,” IBA said.
The company explained that high residual values and sustained passenger demand had resulted in passenger airlines holding onto their 777-300ER fleets longer than planned.
Some carriers are even refurbishing cabins, “indicating extended passenger service life”, IBA added.
Meanwhile, these developments are also driving up the cost of converting a 777-300ER, which will put pressure on future margins.
"IBA estimates that a converted 777-300ERSF in half-life condition is likely to cost between $75–80m, with costs rising closer to $100m if the GE90-115 engines require a shop visit.
"The combination of low feedstock and conversion costs means that operators and lessors will need to commit significant capital, potentially limiting the market to those with strong financial backing.”
In an update on the three 777 conversion programmes in development, IBA said that the 777-300ER programme developed by IAI is close to US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification, following recent test flights.
In total, the conversion firm has converted five aircraft that will all belong to lessor AerCap and will be operated by Kalitta Air.
IAI has conversion lines in Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi (Etihad Engineering), Seoul (Sharp Technics K) and California (Ascent Aviation Services).
IBA added that Mammoth Freighters has begun test flights of its 777-200LRMF prototype, with Qatar Airways announced as the launch customer.
”This variant will serve as the platform for Mammoth’s future 777-300ERMF conversions, offering a potentially accelerated path to certification,” IBA said.
AviaAM Leasing is confirmed as the launch customer for the 777-300ERMF.
Mammoth is operating conversion lines at two sites: Aspire MRO’s facility and STS Aviation’s hangar in Manchester, where two 777-200LRs, formerly operated by Qatar Airways and Delta Air Lines, are currently undergoing conversion.
”Kansas Modification Centre’s 777-300ERCF programme is also progressing, albeit at a slower pace compared to IAI and Mammoth,” said IBA.
