Qatar Airways Cargo exercises agility in changing market

Qatar Airways Cargo is exercising its ability to rapidly adjust to an ever-evolving airfreight market. 

Tariffs, the end of the de minimis exemption and ongoing geopolitical conflict have made for an extraordinarily challenging 2025. 

But alongside navigating all the issues that have made uncertainty the new normal, the core topic of air cargo demand and capacity is always at the forefront of the Qatar Airways Cargo team’s collective mind. 

Questioned about whether there’ll be any surprises when it comes to demand next year, Qatar Airways chief cargo officer Mark Drusch replies that preparing a business to be agile in finding solutions is always more useful than worrying about potential problems. 

“I have no idea what surprises will lay in front of us, positive or negative,” reflects Drusch. 

“Our job though is to find the solutions. So, whatever comes our way, we will do everything we can to make the best of it, good or bad.” 

One example of where Qatar Airways Cargo has certainly had to be agile is with dealing with additional demand out of Southeast Asia. 

SEA growth prevails 

Having participated in the ‘Sustainable growth of air cargo in Southeast Asia’ panel session at the air cargo Southeast Asia conference last month, it’s clear that Drusch has confidence in the longevity of southeast Asia trade and air cargo growth. 

Drusch stressed during the conference that growing economies in Southeast Asia are behind changing production and supply chains that favour the region. This has been happening during the last decade, while this year has seen airlines move capacity from China to Southeast Asia and also away from the transpacific trade lane to Asia-Europe. 

Therefore, he pointed out, this growth isn’t surprising and although the US-China trade war and tariffs have accelerated these supply chain changes “we still would have seen this growth; it just happened sooner because of the trade war”. 

Now, he reasserts that the shift of production to Southeast Asia is a is a long-term trend and that Southeast Asian demand is robust, while China has faced changes long before trade and capacity were curtailed with US tariffs and the US decision to end the de minimis exemption, affecting e-commerce shipments out of China to the US. 

Commenting further on the economy in China compared to Southeast Asia, Drusch says: “I believe that the tariff situation just accelerated what it was already in the process. As the Chinese economy grew, the Chinese workforce modernised, and a middle class really was created, their costs went up.” 

“We knew that at some point you have to export some of that labour and you've got the geography of Southeast Asia with a very young, modern labour force that's looking to create more wealth. It was just a matter of time.” 

Capacity shortage ahead 

However, regardless of where production and supply chains shift to, demand remains fluid and airlines have to be able to react with capacity in the right place. 

Drusch says Qatar Airways Cargo is proactive in moving around capacity within its global network to meet pockets of demand at various times of the year. 

During the air cargo Southeast Asia conference, he had stated that “because we have such a vast global network…we’re very aggressive at moving around during those individual peaks through the holidays”. 

He added: "We look very carefully at where the peaks and demand are, where we should put the extra capacity and if we take some out, where should it be from.” 

But during times of capacity shortages, airlines have to be extra innovative, and Qatar Airways Cargo does see a widebody capacity shortage ahead, a concern previously voiced in the industry.  

“Based on our market analysis for the next 15 years, and looking at all the different forecasts out there, we see a continued solid growth in demand, but we do anticipate a shortage in cargo capacity,” he states. 

“One of three things will happen. Either we're wrong about our forecasts and demand doesn't grow as strong, in which case you don't have a capacity shortage.  

“Two, the demand is greater than capacity, in which case pricing goes up.  

“Or three, demand is strong, capacity is short and we find alternatives.  

“One of those three things will happen. And the truth is we don't know what will happen until it happens. 

“My gut is that we will end up having more demand than capacity. And then how we resolve that will depend on how clever people are and what level of pricing increases the market can sustain.” 

Capacity investment 

Qatar Airways Cargo’s fleet currently comprises 28 freighters – all Boeing 777Fs.  

To prepare for additional demand, the carrier has ordered new generation widebody 777-8Fs from Boeing as well as 777-200 widebody freighter conversions from Mammoth Freighters. 

In 2022, the airline placed an order for 34 777-8Fs, with options for 16 more. But the launch date for the widebody freighter has been pushed back from 2027 to 2028 at the earliest. 

Partly due to this delay, the Doha-headquartered airline had decided to invest in five 777-200LRMFs from Fort Worth, Texas-based conversion firm Mammoth and, as the launch customer, was due to receive the first two aircraft this quarter. 

However, the ongoing US federal government shutdown has delayed the Supplemental Type Certification (STC) process and delivery of the aircraft, says Drusch. 

Qatar Airways Cargo now expects the first aircraft in January, although a precise delivery date is still unclear. 

“That timeline is still indeterminate, because the US government shutdown means that the certification process has slowed down," says Drusch. 

“We need to see how much work can get done and how long the shutdown will be to determine when we get (the aircraft). Right now, we are assuming that we get the first aircraft in January.” 

Drusch believes the government shutdown, which has been in place since 1 October, could potentially push back the deliveries of all five aircraft. 

“We were expecting to get the first and second aircraft this quarter," adds Drusch. Until we really know when the first one comes, we won’t know when units two through five arrive.” 

However, he points out that disruption in the air cargo industry is routine and expected now, with tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption impacting trade and supply chain flows throughout this year. 

“It’s a waiting game, which is not the best thing when you’re trying to plan a business. But the whole industry is in a waiting game right now with uncertainty." 

That said, Drusch stated that Qatar Airways Cargo is not concerned about the delays, because the deliveries are a matter of when, not if. 

“Those airplanes are going to come. It’s just a matter of what month. So I’m not worried. It’s not like they could be two or three years delayed. It’s not a longer-term issue.” 

Further, Mammoth believes the first aircraft may still be delivered before the end of the year. 

Brian McCarthy, vice president of marketing & sales for Mammoth, told Air Cargo News: "The government shut down, did affect us for a couple of weeks when the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) was not in the office.” 

“But we are now fully engaged with the FAA and they do have representatives working on this programme for us at this very moment. They have also agreed to do a timeline that looks very promising for us to get this done before the end of the year." 

McCarthy explained that Mammoth is yet carry out a couple of flights witnessed by the FAA, but these will be completed between 20-23 November and then the 777-200LRMF should enter type inspection authorization (TIA) status to await the final administrative processes before the STC is granted.  

After the STC is granted, Mammoth will be able to begin handing over the 777-200LRMFs to Qatar Airways Cargo.  

Peak perks 

While the freighter conversions may not arrive in time for the fourth quarter, Qatar Airways Cargo is still looking forward to the traditional demand peak. 

Drusch says Qatar Airways Cargo is optimistic for a solid quarter, although peaks are not as high as they used to be. 

“October is stronger than September. The second half of October has been stronger than the first half, despite the fact that Diwali has been in the second half of October. 

“Right now, our preliminary outlook for November is for a stronger month than October. Will it be as strong as last November? No, we don't expect it will be.  

“The cargo industry is finding a way to smooth out peaks and valleys (in terms of demand) and reduce the amplitude of the peaks, so we won't have massive increases and massive troughs and pricing will be more consistent and standardised throughout the year.” 

Helping demand along in 2026 will be aerospace and technology shipments. 

“At the beginning of this year we launched our aerospace vertical and our tech vertical,” explains Drusch. “The two of them are performing much above our forecast. 

“As airlines continue to grow their fleets, the aerospace components will continue to grow. We expect those two verticals to continue to be very strong throughout next year and beyond.” 

Geographically speaking, other than Southeast Asia, Qatar Airways Cargo expects to see continued strong growth in the Middle East and in Africa. 

With the growth in these regions in mind, the airline recently started a freighter service to Erbil, Iraq and this month is starting a freighter service into Baghdad, Iraq. 

“We will continue to look for those markets that we at Qatar Airways Cargo, because of our geography, are uniquely able to service.” 

Another major focus for next year will also be the planned launch in the first quarter of next year of the joint global cargo business by Qatar Airways Cargo, IAG Cargo and MAB Kargo Sdn Bhd (MASkargo). 

First announced in April, the initiative aims to improve the accessibility, efficiency and agility of airfreight, while enabling a streamlined product offering, enhanced connectivity, faster transit times, and new routing opportunities across the airlines' combined networks. 

“One of the most exciting things is launching it and making it successful. We have put a lot of effort and a lot of planning into doing that, and so we're looking forward to getting into the market and showing the market the value of having the first global freighter alliance ever.” 

The alliance is currently waiting for the Malaysian authorities to give MASkargo approval to participate, and this will then enable the launch to take place in the first quarter. 

“Since we announced it, we received ATI authority from the UK, the EU, the Qatari, the US authorities and a bunch of other major markets. We are waiting for the Malaysian authorities to approve Malaysia’s involvement and provide us with antitrust immunity.” 

For now, Qatar Airways Cargo doesn’t have any further partnership announcements to announce, although there have been plenty of partnerships in recent years, so watch this space.