DHL is still expecting the traditional fourth quarter peak for air cargo, despite geopolitical uncertainties around trade, but has admitted the competitive market is a concern.
Speaking in reference to demand surcharges during DHL's first quarter 2025 earnings call transcript, Tobias Meyer, chief executive of DHL Group, said that business is being planned around the usual peak.
"We currently do expect such a peak. So we do not see yet or wouldn't expect that we would not have a normal seasonal pattern, particularly as we look towards Q4," Meyer said.
DHL reported yesterday that first-quarter 2025 airfreight volumes dropped 3% year on year, although airfreight business remained “relatively stable”.
In comparison, Kuehne+Nagel reported a 5% increase in air volumes while demand was flat at DSV.
First quarter airfreight revenue in DHL's Global Forwarding, Freight (GFF) division was up 4% to €1.4bn year on year.
DHL noted it has been fairly well protected from tariff disruption on account of the varied distribution of its shipments.
Meyer reiterated in the earnings call that "we have a highly diversified trade lane mix", but acknowledged continued trade uncertainty and volatility, increased competitiveness and added uncertainty around the capacity that is currently carrying e-commerce trade out of China.
Addressing the drop in airfreight volumes, Meyer said: "And we do obviously recognise the numbers of competitors. And we also see quite a competitive and uncertain airfreight market currently. So there's a lot in flux."
Further speaking about airfreight performance within GFF, Meyer added, "we obviously see that relative to competition, the first quarter doesn't look good. We need to understand that in more detail".
Meyer also noted that despite stability in the first quarter, since 2 April, "the weekly volatility in volumes across trade lanes has further increased and remains difficult to forecast".
Global trade is expected to continue to grow in the coming years despite the growing barriers and the rising implementation of tariffs, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, publsihed in March.
