Asia Pacific has become a greater focus for e-commerce air cargo volumes following US tariff and de minimis changes that curbed e-commerce out of China.
This is one of the key findings from a first of its kind whitepaper released this week by The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA).
The US tariff changes since the beginning of April and the removal of the ‘de minimis’ exemption for China-US goods since the start of May saw China and Hong Kong volumes to the US decline.
After the removal of the de minimis exemption, volumes dropped 17%, although they recovered for a period due to frontloading efforts after the 90-day pause on tariffs was announced, highlighted the Association's first-ever white paper dedicated entirely to e-commerce.
Meanwhile, volumes are recovering more quickly from other origins in the Asia Pacific region to the US and from Asia Pacific overall to Europe, suggesting a (partial) shift of (e-commerce) trade flows from China and Hong Kong to other markets, found the 'E-Commerce: Opportunities & Challenges' whitepaper.
E-commerce demand on the transpacific trade lane has significantly increased since 2021, noted the whitepaper. In 2024, it is estimated that 50% of transpacific air cargo demand consisted of e-commerce.
This e-commerce demand has in part displaced general cargo (or contains general cargo shipped under de minimis rules), therefore in reality around 25% of China-US demand may be at risk with changes to de minimis rules, stated the research.
When rules that exempted de minimis imports from duties were ended on 2 May, that made the e-commerce business model used by major platforms such as TEMU and Shein unsustainable. Unsurprisingly then, capacity on the lane fell by 30%, illustrating the reliance on e-commerce and the link to freighter capacity.
Looking in detail at China's e-commerce market, the whitepaper found e-commerce originating in mainland China and Hong Kong has seen double digit growth since 2019.
The main area driving this growth are China south east (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen) at almost double its size of 2019, and in 2024 volumes from the area China central & west (Zhengzhou, Ezhou, Chongqing, Chengdu) increased in one year by almost one third compared with 2019.
Hong Kong, the largest origin area within China grew also substantially in 2024, up 9% versus 2019.
Ex-China e-commerce reached 4.4m tonnes in 2024 and has grown 38% per annum since 2021. China e-commerce volumes have almost doubled in the past two years.
Low-value e-commerce reached 55% of China-US air trade volumes in 2024.
E-commerce volumes could double
Looking at the overall e-commerce market, e-commerce air cargo volumes could double within the next decade, the whitepaper found.
The whitepaper said that by the close of 2024, e-commerce accounted for approximately 20% of global air cargo volumes, with forecasts predicting these volumes could double within the next decade.
This rapid growth, accelerated by COVID-driven shifts in consumer behaviour, has reshaped supply chains, created new business models, and revealed gaps in regulation, standardisation, and infrastructure.
E-commerce volumes have grown steadily over the last five years, and industry estimates indicate that it now accounts for over 12m metric tonnes, said the research.
Developed by TIACA’s multi-sector E-Commerce Task Force – comprising airlines, airports, ground handlers, technology providers, freight forwarders, and industry analysts – the white paper examines the sector’s most pressing challenges and opportunities, from safety and customs management to harmonized data standards, sustainability, and innovation.
“E-commerce is not just a new cargo product – it’s a paradigm shift in how the air logistics sector operates. This white paper provides actionable policy recommendations, industry best practices, and a collaborative roadmap to ensure that we as a global community are ready for the next phase of growth.” said Steven Polmans, chair, TIACA.
“Our industry is at a crossroads. By embracing digitalization, innovation, and cross-sector collaboration, we can transform e-commerce air logistics into a safer, greener, and more efficient ecosystem.” added Nikolai Schaffner, Swissport co-chair of TIACA’s E-Commerce Task Force.
Glyn Hughes, TIACA director general, commented: “This white paper is a vital step in helping our industry navigate the rapid rise of e-commerce. My thanks go to our E-Commerce Task Force for their expertise and hard work, and to our Board for prioritizing this initiative. Together, we are charting a path toward safer, smarter, and more sustainable e-commerce air logistics that takes into account evolving regulations and consumer behavior.”
