Baltic Exchange data shows Hong Kong-North America rates rose 8.4% month on month in November while Europe services climbed 8.9%, both below decade averages

Air cargo demand up again in September but growth narrows

Source: Jaromir Chalabala/Shutterstock

Airfreight rates on key trade lanes out of Hong Kong continued to improve in November as the air cargo peak season ramped up.

The latest monthly statistics from the Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index, which uses TAC Index data based on spot and contract pricing, showed increases in pricing on services from Hong Kong to both North America and Europe.

Rates on services from Hong Kong to North America increased to $6.18 per kg in November from $5.70 per kg in October. 

Rates traditionally ramp up in November as the air cargo peak season gets underway and retailers prepare for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday retail events and the Thanksgiving holiday.

However, the rate of increase between the two months of 8.4% lags behind an average increase between the two months of around 13% (excluding extraordinary years) over the past 10 years, perhaps reflecting reports of a slightly slower start to the peak season this year.

On the other hand, the gap to last year’s rate levels on the trade continued to narrow to a decline of just 0.3% year on year in November. The difference stood at a year-on-year decline of 10.4% in September and 0.5% in October.

The trade lane has been affected by the US end of the de minimis exemption for e-commerce packages and US tariffs. As a result, volumes over the year have been shifting to Southeast Asia, while e-commerce demand has been picking back up.

There was a similar trend on services from Hong Kong to Europe, where rates increased to $5 per kg in November from $4.59 per kg.

The month-on-month increase of 8.9% lagged behind an average over the past 10 years of 10.8%, again reflecting a quieter start to the peak season.

Compared with last year, rates on the trade are down by 5.5% year on year.